Turn safety into your competitive edge in the green transition

Consequence analysis for hydrogen and ammonia containment loss scenarios

Author: Bingzhi Li

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

Hydrogen and ammonia are playing an increasingly vital role across various industries, particularly as energy carriers and industrial feedstocks in the green transition. However, their unique properties make safety a critical consideration in any process involving them. To effectively manage risks and mitigate potential hazards, consequence analysis is a key tool in ensuring safe and reliable processes.

According to the International Energy Agency (2024), global investments in electrolysis facilities for hydrogen production have already reached approximately USD 2.8 billion, with expectations for a 150% increase in 2024 alone. Similarly, BloombergNEF (2024) forecasts a significant expansion of clean ammonia supply, projecting it will grow 22- to 30-fold over the next decade and account for 13% of the global ammonia market by 2030.

As these industries continue to grow, the safety of hydrogen and ammonia will be key to their success and widespread adoption.

Handling hydrogen at refueling stations presents different risks compared to its use in chemical plants.

Safety challenges in hydrogen and ammonia

Safety is a critical consideration in all processes involving hydrogen and ammonia due to their unique properties. Hydrogen is highly flammable, while ammonia is highly toxic, making risk management essential in all applications. Beyond the immediate risk of injuries, incidents involving these substances can disrupt supply chains and lead to prolonged shortages. Therefore, rigorous safety assessments are vital when deploying new hydrogen and ammonia technologies.

Safety challenges emerge at various stages of new applications. For example, handling hydrogen at refueling stations presents different risks compared to its use in chemical plants. Similarly, managing the onboard storage and use of ammonia as a marine fuel requires specific safety measures.

Safety Properties Of Hydrogen And Ammonia
Table 1. Safety properties of hydrogen and ammonia

Real-world incident examples

On June 10, 2019, a hydrogen leak at the Kjørbo station near Oslo resulted in an explosion, injuring three people when pressure waves triggered airbags in nearby cars. The leak was caused by an assembly error in a high-pressure storage tank, which led to the formation of a hydrogen-air mixture that ignited – likely due to autoignition or the movement of gravel beneath the storage unit. As a result, operator Nel Hydrogen suspended operations at multiple stations (Nel Hydrogen, 2019).

In January 2025, two explosions at hydrogen filling stations in South Korea raised significant safety concerns (Hydrogen Insight, 2025). One occurred in Chungju when a Hyundai hydrogen bus exploded after refueling, while another incident in Busan was linked to a leak from a safety valve, although the ignition source remained unidentified.

Mitigating risks with consequence analysis

Addressing safety challenges in hydrogen and ammonia applications requires a proactive, comprehensive approach. Stakeholders must focus on several key aspects, including:

  • Regulatory frameworks and standards
  • Technology innovation
  • Infrastructure design and upgrades
  • Risk assessment and management
  • Training and education.

Consequence analysis plays a crucial role in risk assessment and management, especially when evaluating risks from loss of containment. In the case of hydrogen and ammonia, this analysis examines gas discharge, dispersion, and potential fire and explosion scenarios. It provides vital insights into the impact on personnel, equipment, and the environment, thus supporting risk evaluation and enabling the development of effective mitigation strategies.

Data-driven insights

Beyond risk assessment, consequence analysis plays a key role in enhancing safety across multiple areas. By providing data-driven insights, it supports:

  • The development of up-to-date and robust safety protocols and emergency response plans
  • The implementation of leak detection, flame detection, and suppression systems
  • The design and planning of infrastructure
  • Improved risk awareness among personnel, first responders, and the public.

Integrating consequence analysis into these areas enables industries to strengthen their safety measures and enhance their resilience in responding to potential incidents.

Various applications of consequence analysis

Consequence analysis can be conducted using various tools and levels of complexity, depending on the scenario and the specific information required. At Elomatic, we have used Phast software from DNV (2025) to analyze a wide range of industrial and public sector scenarios. These analyses evaluate the dispersion, fire, and explosion impacts of substances such as hydrogen and ammonia, helping to define safety distances and develop emergency response plans.

One notable case study involved analyzing a BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion) of an ammonia rail tank. Additionally, we have integrated Phast calculations for loss-of-containment scenarios into the preliminary safety reviews for Green North Energy Oy, a project development company founded by Elomatic. The company focuses on the development of green hydrogen and ammonia production plants, playing a pioneering role in this sector.

Use of CFD simulations

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has proven to be an invaluable tool in consequence analysis. At Elomatic, we utilize CFD simulations to assess gas dispersion and deflagration in various environments, such as parking halls, factory buildings, engine rooms, and exhaust pipes. These simulations are essential in evaluating the effectiveness of ventilation systems, gas detection setups, and pressure relief devices.

Figure 1 illustrates the formation of a flammable methane-hydrogen mixture in a mock-up of an engine room. This analysis aids in determining the optimal placement of gas detectors on the room’s roof.

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has proven to be an invaluable tool in consequence analysis.

Figure 1. CFD simulations of a flammable methane-hydrogen mixture in an engine room.

Strengthening safety in the green transition

Discussions around the safe handling and use of hydrogen and ammonia are increasingly taking place on major global platforms. In September 2024, our CFD simulations of methane-hydrogen mixture dispersion and deflagration were presented at the Rostock Large Engine Symposium. Leading companies supplying engines for ships and power plants showcased their progress in developing engines powered by green fuels, such as hydrogen and ammonia.

By leveraging advanced tools for consequence analysis in loss-of-containment scenarios, we can significantly improve safety throughout the entire lifecycle of hydrogen and ammonia – from production and transport to storage and handling. By integrating these methods into your projects, you can not only foster a safer, more sustainable future but also gain a competitive advantage in an industry rapidly advancing toward greener solutions.

Bingzhi Li, Elomatic

Bingzhi Li
D.Sc. (Tech.)

Bingzhi Li has a strong background in combustion and chemistry, with over two decades of experience in CFD simulations. He currently works as a Senior Consulting Engineer at Elomatic, specializing in combustion-related CFD simulations and safety analysis.

bingzhi.li@elomatic.com

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